european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts (EDIPI)
2021 – 2025
Coordinator: G. Messori
EDIPI is a large European network of universities, research institutions and private actors, coordinated by myself in Uppsala. The project seeks to advance our understanding of the dynamics, predictability and impacts of temperature, precipitation (including drought) and surface wind extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean. We will leverage a truly interdisciplinary scientific approach embracing climate science, statistical mechanics, dynamical systems theory, risk management, agronomy, epidemiology and more to open unexplored avenues in the study of the above weather extremes. EDIPI also has a strong training component, and will train a cohort of early-stage researchers to become weather extremes experts.
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Compound Climate Extremes in North America and Europe: from dynamics to predictability (CENÆ)
2021 – 2026
PI: G. Messori
CENÆ is an ERC Starting Grant focussing on compound climate extremes, and specifically wet and windy extremes in Europe and the latter with the additional co-occurrence of cold spells over North America. Elucidating the nature of these compound extremes is a societally relevant goal. However, it is not easily realised from a scientific standpoint. In this project, we will use an interdisciplinary knowledge base to elucidate the atmospheric precursors to the above compound extremes, provide a nuanced understanding of their predictability and point to new predictability pathways. The analysis framework we will develop will be highly flexible and applicable to multivariate extremes beyond climate science.
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A state-of-the-art impacts database of European climate extremes
2022 – 2025
PI: G. Messori; co-PIs: J. Nivre, M. M. de Brito
Mitigating the impacts of extreme climate events requires understanding how impacts link to climatic drivers. However, existing freely-available climate hazard impact databases are often designed for rapid reporting and have limitations in terms of completeness and accuracy. In this project, we seek to overcome this gap by producing a holistic European multi-sector impacts database of climate extremes, from mining of online text sources.
FORMAS Research Project
Adapting to temperature extremes in a changing climate: Past trends and future scenarios (ADATES)
2023 – 2026
PI: E. Raffetti; co-PIs: J. Ballester, G. di Baldassarre, G. Messori, J. Möller, I. Pechlivanidis
Temperature extremes negatively affect public health and well-being. These detrimental impacts are unevenly distributed, and are projected to increase under future climate change. Taking Sweden as a case-in-point, we aim to address the following questions: (1) which groups are most vulnerable to non-optimal and extreme temperatures? (2) what is the interplay between environmental drivers, societal processes, adaptation strategies and the resulting health impacts?and (3) how can adaptation strategies mitigate the health impacts of plausible future temperatures? Leveraging available climate projections, we will also develop scenarios of health impacts of future temperatures incorporating different adaptation strategies.
Adapting to temperature extremes in pregnant women and infants: past trends and future scenarios (PRoMEThEUS)
2025 – 2027
PI E. Raffetti; Co-PIs: S. Döring, C. Magnusson, G. Messori, A. N. Gallinad, N. Orsini, M. Rusca, L. Zuccolo
Non-optimal or extreme temperatures negatively affect public health and well-being. Pregnant women and infants bear a disproportionate burden in this respect. In this project, we will study the vulnerability to non-optimal and extreme temperatures in pregnant women and infants in Sweden and develop related scenarios of health outcomes from plausible future extreme temperatures in Sweden.
Vetenskapsrådet Excellence Centre
Swedish Centre for Impacts of Climate Extremes (climes)
2024 – 2028
PI: G. Messori; co-PIs: E. Boyd, J. Nivre, E. Raffetti
Climate extremes have multifarious socio-economic impacts. This new Center of Excellence commits to building a new interdisciplinary research field bridging the physical, medical, social and engineering sciences, providing training opportunities and supporting societal response to climate extremes. The centre focuses on three overarching themes: improving databases of impacts of climate extremes; using these to better understand the physical and societal interplays determining the impacts of an extreme; and building policy-actionable scenarios of impacts of future extremes.
Dynamic Adaptation to Temporally compound hydroclimate Extremes: supporting a sustainable transformation under global changes (DATE)
2023 – 2027
PI: E. Raffetti; co-PIs: S. Döring, C. Magnusson, M. Mazzoleni, G. Messori, M. Rusca
Temporally compound hydroclimate extremes, such as drought-to-flood and heatwave-drought transitions, pose a formidable challenge to sustainable transformation. This project aims to enhance understanding of temporally compound hydroclimate extremes and identify adaptation actions that promote sustainable transformation. This includes impact data collection, conducting case-studies of (mis-)adaptation following past extremes. building conceptual models of the adaptation processes and and developing scenarios to evaluate public health and societal impacts of future extremes under different development pathways.
Horizon Europe RIA
Uncertainty-aware quantification of climate tipping potential and climatic, ecological and socioeconomic impacts (ClimTip)
2024 – 2027
PI: N. Boers; co-PIs: ClimTip consortium, including G. Messori
ClimTip will substantially advance the process understanding of possible Earth system Tipping Elements (TEs). It will provide the methodological framework for
characterising and constraining potential TEs, for identifying unknown tipping potential from observations and models, and for quantifying resilience and changes thereof in climate and ecosystems, including early-warning of forthcoming transitions. ClimTip will thus deliver a comprehensive and precise knowledge basis for tipping-aware risk assessment and adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Past Grants
Impacts of Climate Extremes from Mining of Online Texts (2023 – 2024), European Research Council Proof-of-Concept
PI: G. Messori
Atmospheric Extremes in the Antarctic Marginal Ice Zone (2018 – 2023), Swedish Foundation for International Cooperation in Research and Higher Education Initiation Grant
PI for Sweden: G. Messori; PI for South Africa: M. Vichi
Large-Scale Atmospheric Variability driving changes in the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle and Storage (2019 – 2021), Swedish Research Council FORMAS Research Project.
PI: G. Messori; Co-PIs: S. Manzoni and G. Vico
Large-Scale Organisation of Extreme Weather over Europe and North America (2017 – 2020), Swedish Research Council Vetenskapsrådet Starting Grant.
PI: G. Messori
High latitude atmosphere, Sea-ice and ocean Sciences – HighSeaS (2020), South Africa Sweden University Forum Project.
PI: G. Messori; Co-PI: M. Vichi
Atmospheric pathways to improve seasonal predictability of the terrestrial carbon cycle (2017 – 2018), Bolin Centre RA4 Seed Project.
PI: G. Messori; Co-PIs: S. Manzoni and C. Beer
Large-Scale Dynamics of European Weather Extremes (2016 – 2017), MISU Research Fellowhsip.
PI: G. Messori