Submitted

[*]Faranda, D. Sat, Y., Dong, C., Gualandi, A., Noyelle, R., Alberti, T., Dubrulle, B., Fery, L., Messori, G., Vrac, M., Ayar, P. V., Yiou, P., Mengaldo, G. On the link between El Niño and prolonged dry conditions in Southeast Asia, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci.

[*] Lu, C., Nogherotto, R., Alberti, T., Messori, G., Coppola, E., Faranda, D. Models Confirm that Recent European Wildfires Are Exacerbated by Anthropogenic Climate Change. Env. Res. Lett.

[*] #Lopez-Marti, F., Segalini, A., Messori, G. Moisture sources throughout the life-cycle of an Extreme Atmospheric River. J. geophys. Rev.

[*] #Stergiou, P., Segalini, A., Messori, G. Concurrent wintertime cold spells in North America and warm or cold spells in Europe. Clim. Dyn.

[*] #Leeding, R., #Riboldi, J., Messori, G. Pan-Atlantic North American cold spells and European wind extremes in CMIP6 historical simulations. J. Geophys. Res. Atm.

[*] Pons, F.M.E., Alberti, T., Messori, G., Dulac, F., Faranda, D. Assessing climate change impacts on the March 2024 compound floods and Saharan dust outbreak in Europe. J. Geophys. Res. Atm.

[*] #Schutte, M., Portal, A., Lee, S. H., Messori, G. Dynamics of stratospheric wave reflection over the North Pacific. Wea. Clim. Dyn.

[*] #Flynn, C.M., Mömken, J., Pinto, J.G., Messori, G. A New Database of Extreme European Winter Windstorms. Earth Sys. Sci. Data

[*] #Holmberg, E., Quijal, M., Ballester, J.*, Messori, G.* (equal contribution). Skillful heat related mortality forecasting during recent deadly European summers. Lancet Plan. Health

[*] Jewson, S., #Olivetti, L., Messori, G., Northrop, P. Reducing the Underestimation of Temperature Extremes in Forecasts from Ensemble Model Output Statistics. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc.

[*] #Riboldi, J., Dorrington, J., #Krouma, M., #Leeding, R., Messori, G. Explaining pan-Atlantic cold and windy extremes using an analog-based approach. J. Geophy. Res. Atm.

[*] Cadau, M., Messori, G., Gaetani, M., Fosser, G., Bordoni, S., Buizza, R., Sannino, G. On the relationship between Ural blocking and Arctic-midlatitude thermal gradient. Geophys. Res. Lett., resubmission pending.

[*] De Luca, P., Messori, G., Faranda, D., Coumou, D. Global warming makes weather in boreal summer more persistent. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., resubmission pending

# denotes supervised students or post-docs. Original research articles, reviews, overviews and perspectives are numbered; peer-reviewed commentaries, meeting reports and similar are assigned a letter.

2024

[111] #Lopez-Marti, F., Ginesta, M., Faranda, D., Rutgersson, A., Yiou, P., Wu, L., Messori, G. Future changes of compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic. Earth Sys. Dyn., accepted.

[110] #Holmberg, E., Tietsche, S., Messori, G. Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.4885

[109] #Olivetti, L., Messori, G. Do data-driven models beat numerical models in forecasting weather extremes? A comparison of IFS HRES, Pangu-Weather, and GraphCast. Geosci. Mod. Dev., doi: 10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024.

[108] Faranda, D.*, Messori, G.* (equal contribution), Alberti, T., Alvarez-Castro, M. C., Caby, T., Cavicchia, L., Coppola, E., Donner, R., Dubrulle, B., Galfi, V. M., #Holmberg, E., Lembo, V., Noyelle, R., Spagnolo, B., Vaienti, S., Valenti, D., Yiou, P., Wormell, C. Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events. Phys. Rev. E, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001

[107] Rusca, M., Sverdlik, A., Acharya, A., Basel, B., Boyd, E., Comelli, T., Dodman, D., Fraser, A., Harris, D.M., Lindersson, S., Mazzoleni, M., Mbah, M.F., Mitlin, D.,Ogra, A., Pelling, M., Raffetti, E., Sultana, F., Thompson, E., Tozzi, A., Zwarteveen, M., Messori, G. Plural Climate Storylines to foster just urban futures. Nature Cities, doi: 10.1038/s44284-024-00133-6

[106] Dong, C., Noyelle, R., Messori, G., Gualandi, A., Fery, L., Yiou, P., Vrac, M., D’Andrea, F., Camargo, S.J., Coppola, E., Balsamo, G., Chen C., Faranda, D. and Mengaldo, G. Indo-Pacific regional extremes aggravated by changes in tropical weather patterns. Nature Geosci., doi: 10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024.

[105] Messori, G., Segalini, A., Ramos, A. M. Climatology and trends in concurrent temperature extremes in the global extratropics. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024.

[104] Segalini, A., #Riboldi, J., Wirth, V., Messori, G. A linear assessment of barotropic Rossby wave propagation in different background flow configurations. Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024

[103] Gaetani, M., Messori, G., Pausata, F.S.R., Tiwari, S., Alvarez-Castro, M., Zhang, Q. Mid-Holocene climate at mid-latitudes: assessing the impact of the Saharan greening. Clim. Past, doi: 10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024

[J] Lembo, V., Bordoni, S., Bevacqua, E., Domeisen, D., Franzke, C., Galfi, V.M., Garfinkel, C., Grams, C., Hochman, A., Jha, R., Kornhuber, K., Kwasniok, F., Lucarini, V., Messori, G., Pappert, D., Perez-Fernandez, I., #Riboldi, J., Russo, E., Shaw, T.A., e Tiffany A. Shaw, #Strigunova, I., Strnad, F., Yiou, P., Zagar, N. Dynamics, statistics and predictability of Rossby waves, heatwaves and spatially compounding extreme events. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., in press

[102] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Coppola, E., Alberti, T., Vrac, M., Pons, F.M.E., Yiou, P., Saint Lu, M., Hisi A.N.S., Brockmann, P., Dafis, S., Vautard, R. ClimaMeter: Contextualising Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate. Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024

[101] #Stanković, A. Messori, G., Pinto, J.G., Caballero, R. Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic. Wea. Clim. Dyn. doi: 10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024

[100] Hepworth, E., Messori, G., Vichi, M. Synoptic-scale extreme variability of winter Antarctic sea-ice concentration and its link to Southern Ocean extratropical cyclones. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, doi: 10.1029/2023JC019825

[99] Mömken, J., Pinto, J.G., Messori, G. Windstorm losses in Europe - What to gain from damage datasets, Wea. Clim. Extremes, doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100661

[98] Muheki, D., Deijns A.A.J., Bevacqua, E., Messori, G., Zscheischler, J., Thiery, W. The perfect storm? Co-occurring climate extremes in East Africa. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-15-429-2024

[97] #Olivetti, L., Messori, G. Advances and Prospects of Deep Learning for Medium-Range Extreme Weather Forecasting. Geosci. Mod. Dev., doi: 10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024 **GMD highlight article

[96] Raffetti, E., Ahrne, M., Döring, S., Hagström, A., Mazzoleni, M., Messori, G., Rusca, M., Zarantonello, L. Sustainable transformation for healthcare systems in a changing climate. Cell Reports Sustainability, doi: 10.1016/j.crsus.2024.100054

[95] Pons F.M.E., Yiou, P., Jézéquel, A., Messori, G. (2024) Simulating the Western North America Heatwave of 2021 with Analogue Importance Sampling, Wea. Clim. Extremes, doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100651

[94] Lee, S.H. and Messori, G.. (2024) The Dynamical Footprint of Year-Round North American Weather Regimes. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2023GL107161.

[93] #Olivetti, L., Messori, G., Jin, S. (2024) A Quantile Generalised Additive Approach for Compound Climate Extremes: Pan Atlantic Extremes as a Case Study. JAMES, doi: 10.1029/2023MS003753

[92] Madruga de Brito, M., Sodoge, J., Fekete, A., Hagenlocher, M., Koks, E., Kuhlicke, C., Messori, G., de Ruiter, M., Schweizer, P.-J., Ward, P. J. (2024) Uncovering the dynamics of multi-sector impacts of hydrological extremes: a methods overview. Earths Future, doi:10.1029/2023EF003906

[91] #Shyrokaya, A., Messori, G., Pechlivanidis I., Pappenberger F., Cloke H., Di Baldassarre G. (2024) Significant relationships between drought indicators and impacts for the 2018-2019 drought in Germany. Env. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d9

[90] #Shyrokaya, A., Pappenberger, F., Pechlivanidis, I., Messori, G., Khatami, S., Mazzoleni, M., Di Baldassarre, G. (2024) Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact-based forecasting of droughts, WIREs Water, doi: 10.1002/wat2.1698

2023

[89] #Leeding, R., #Riboldi, J., Messori, G. (2023) Modulation of North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones and Extreme Weather in Europe during North American Cold Spells. Wea. Clim. Extremes, doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100629.

[88] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2023) Physics-inspired adaptions to low-parameter neural network weather forecast systems. Artif. Intell. Earth Sys., doi: 10.1175/AIES-D-23-0046.1

[87] Messori, G. and Dorrington, J. (2023) A joint perspective on North American and Euro-Atlantic weather regimes, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2023GL104696

[86] Tersigni, I., Alberello, A., Messori, G., Vichi, M., Onorato, M., Toffoli, A. (2023) High-resolution thermal imaging in the Antarctic marginal ice zone: Skin temperature heterogeneity and effects on heat fluxes. Earth and Space Science, doi: 10.1029/2023EA003078

[85] Papritz, L., Murto, S., Röthlisberger, M., Caballero, R., Messori, G., Svensson, G., Wernli, H. (2023) The role of local and remote processes for wintertime surface energy budget extremes over Arctic sea ice, J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0883.1

[84] Rusca, M., Mazzoleni, M., Barcena, A., Savelli E., Messori, G. (2023) Speculative political ecologies: (re)imagining urban futures of climate extremes, J. Pol. Ecol., doi: 10.2458/jpe.4827

[83] Pons, F. M. E., Messori, G., Faranda, D. (2023) Statistical performance of local attractor dimension estimators in non-Axiom A dynamical systems, Chaos, doi: 10.1063/5.0152370

[82] #Holmberg, E., Messori, G., Caballero, R., Faranda, D. (2023) The link between European warm temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence. Earth. Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-14-737-2023.

[81] #Riboldi, J., #Leeding, R., Segalini, A., Messori, G. (2023) Multiple large-scale dynamical pathways for pan-Atlantic compound cold and windy extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2022GL102528

[80] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Bourdin, S., Vrac, M., Thao, S., Riboldi, J., Fromang, S., Yiou, P. (2023) Correcting biases in tropical cyclone intensities in low-resolution datasets using dynamical systems metrics, Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-023-06794-8

[79] Kornhuber, K.* and Messori, G.* (equal contribution). Recent increase in a recurrent pan-Atlantic wave-pattern driving concurrent wintertime extremes, Bull. Am. Met. Soc., doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0295.1

[J] Kleidon, A., Messori, G., Baidya Roy, S., Didenkulova, I., Zeng, N. (2023) Editorial: Global warming is due to an enhanced greenhouse effect, and anthropogenic heat emissions currently play a negligible role at the global scale, Earth Sys. Dyn. , doi: 10.5194/esd-14-241-2023

[78] Messori, G. and Faranda, D. (2023) On the Systematic Occurrence of Compound Cold Spells in North America and Wet or Windy Extremes in Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2022GL101008.

[77] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Jézéquel, A., Vrac, M., Yiou, P. (2023) Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., doi: 10.1073/pnas.2214525120

[76] Murto, S., Papritz, L., Messori, G., Caballero, R., Svensson, G., Wernli, H. (2023) Extreme surface energy budget anomalies in the High Arctic, J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0209.1

[75] #Galfi, M. and Messori, G. (2023) Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe, Env. Res. Lett., doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acaedf

[I] #Galfi, M. and Messori, G. (2023) Erratum: Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe, Env. Res. Lett., doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acbdb3

[74] Lucarini, V., #Galfi, M., #Riboldi, J.,Messori, G. (2023) Typicality of the 2021 Western North America Summer Heatwave, Env. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/acab77

[73] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Yiou, P., Thao, S., Pons, F.M.E., Dubrulle, B. (2023) Dynamical footprints of hurricanes in the tropical dynamics, Chaos, doi: 10.1063/5.0093732

[72] Stoll, P.J. Graversen, R.G., Messori, G. (2023) The global atmospheric energy transport analysed by a wavelength-based scale separation, Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023

[71] #Leeding, R., #Riboldi, J., Messori, G. (2023) On Pan-Atlantic cold, wet and windy compound extremes, Wea. Clim. Extremes, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2022.100524

[70] Jewson, S., Messori, G., Barbato, G., Mercogliano, P., Mysiak, J., Sassi, M. (2023) Developing Representative Impact Scenarios From Climate Projection Ensembles, With Application to UKCP18 and EURO-CORDEX Precipitation, JAMES, doi:10.1029/2022MS003038.

[69] Rusca, M., Savelli, E., Di Baldassarre, G., Biza, A., Messori, G. (2023) Unprecedented droughts are expected to exacerbate urban inequalities in Southern Africa. Nat. Clim. Change, doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01546-8.

2022

[68]Ginesta-Fernandez, M., Yiou, P., Messori, G., Faranda, D. (2022) A methodology for attributing severe extratropical cyclones to climate change based on reanalysis data: the case study of storm Alex 2020. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06565-x

[67] Faranda, D., Bourdin, S., Ginesta, M., Krouma, M., Noyelle, R., Pons, F., Yiou, P., Messori, G. (2022) A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021. Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022

[66] Messori, G., Kretschmer, M., Lee, S., Matthias, V. (2022) Stratospheric Downward Wave Reflection Events Modulate North American Weather Regimes and Cold Spells. Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022

[H] Messori, G., Kretschmer, M., Lee, S., Matthias, V. (2024) Corrigendum to “Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells” published in Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1215–1236, 2022. Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi: doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022-corrigendum

[65] Lembo, V., Fabiano, F., #Galfi, V. M., Graversen, R., Lucarini, V. and Messori, G. (2022) Meridional Energy Transport Extremes and the general circulation of NH mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers, Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022

[64] #Wu., M., Manzoni, S., Vico, G., Bastos, A., de Vries, F., Messori, G. (2022) Drought legacy in sub-seasonal vegetation state and sensitivity to climate over the Northern Hemisphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2022GL098700

[63] Messori, G.*, #Wu., M.* (equal contribution), Vico, G., #Galfi, V. M. (2022) Atmospheric jet stream variability reflects vegetation activity in Europe, Agr. For. Met., doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109008

[62] Hepworth, E., Messori, G., Vichi, M. (2022) Association between extreme atmospheric anomalies over Antarctic sea ice, Southern Ocean polar cyclones and atmospheric rivers, J. Geophys. Res. Atm., doi: 10.1029/2021JD036121

[61] Hochman, A., Marra, F., Messori, G., Pinto, J.G., Raveh-Rubin, S., Yosef, Y., Zittis, G. (2022) Extreme Weather and Societal Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean, Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-13-749-2022

[60] #Ye, K., Messori, G., Chen, D., Woollings, T. (2022) An NAO-dominated mode of atmospheric circulation drives large decadal changes in wintertime surface climate and snow mass over Eurasia, Env. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac592f

[59] Marcheggiani, A., Ambaum, M., Messori, G.  (2022) The Life Cycle of Meridional Heat Flux Peaks. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.4249

[58] Jewson, S., #Scher, S., Messori, G. (2022) Communicating Properties of Changes in Lagged Weather Forecasts. Wea. For., doi:10.1175/WAF-D-21-0086.1

[57] Hochman, A., #Scher, S. Quinting, J., Pinto, J. G., Messori, G. (2022) Dynamics and predictability of Cold Spells over the Eastern Mediterranean. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-020-05465-2

[56] Nohrstedt, D., Parker, C., von Uexkull, N., Mård, J., Nyberg, L., Petrova, K., Albrecht, F., Göteman, M., Hileman, J., Messori, G., Di Baldassarre, G. (2022) Disaster Risk Reduction and the limits of truisms: improving the knowledge and practice interface. Clim. Risk Management, doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102661

2021

[55] Hochman, A., Messori, G., Quinting, F. J., Pinto, J. G., Grams, C. M. (2021) Do Atlantic-European weather regimes physically exist? Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2021GL095574.
**Wiley top downloaded article

[54] #Ye, K. and Messori, G. (2021) Inter-model spread in the wintertime Arctic amplification in the CMIP6 models and the importance of internal climate variability. Glob. Plan. Ch., doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103543

[53] Pausata, F. S. R., Messori, G., Yun, J., Jalihal, C. A., Bollasina, M. A., Marchitto, T. M. (2021) The remote response of the South Asian Monsoon to reduced dust emissions and Sahara greening during the middle Holocene. Clim. Past, doi: 10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021

[52] #Scher, S., Jewson, S., Messori, G.  (2021) Robust worst-case scenarios from ensemble forecasts. Wea. For., doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0219.1

[G] Messori, G., Bevacqua, E., Caballero, R., Coumou, D., De Luca, P., Faranda, D., Kornhuber, K., Martius, O., Pons, F. M. E., Raymond, C., #Ye, K., Yiou, P., Zscheischler, J. (2021) Compound climate events and extremes in the mid-latitudes: dynamics, simulation and statistical characterisation. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0289.1

[F] Ernakovich, J.G., Eklund, N., Varner, R.K., Kirchner, N., Jeuring, J.,Duderstadt, K., Granebeck, A., Golubeva, E., ASIAQ participants including Messori, G. (2021) Is a common goal a false hope in convergence research?: Opportunities and challenges of international convergence research to address Arctic change. Earths Future, doi: 10.1029/2020EF001865

[51] #Wu, M., Vico, G., Manzoni, S., Cai, Z., Bassiouni, M., Tian, F., Zhang, J., #Ye, K., Messori, G. (2021) Early growing season anomalies in vegetation activity determine the large-scale climate-vegetation coupling in Europe. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci., doi: 10.1029/2020JG006167

[50] Jewson, S., #Scher, S., Messori, G. (2021) Decide now or wait for the next forecast? Testing a decision framework using real forecasts and observations. Mon. Wea. Rev, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-20-0392.1

[49] Rusca, M., Messori, G., Di Baldassarre, G. (2021) Scenarios of human responses to unprecedented social-environmental extreme events. Earths Future, doi: 10.1029/2020EF001911

[48] Messori G. and Faranda, D. (2021) Technical Note: Characterising and comparing different palaeoclimates with dynamical systems theory. Clim. Past, doi: 10.5194/cp-17-545-2021

[47] Messori, G., Harnik, N., Madonna, E., Lachmy, O., Faranda, D. (2021) A dynamical systems characterisation of atmospheric jet regimes. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-12-233-2021
**ESD highlight article

[46] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2021) Ensemble methods for neural network-based weather forecasts. JAMES, doi:10.1029/2020MS002331

[E] Caserini, S., Coyaud, S., Persico, G., Messori, G. (2021) Evaluating the scientific credentials of supporters of public petitions denying anthropogenic climate change. Tellus A, doi: 10.1080/16000870.2021.1875727

[45] Hochman, A., #Scher, S., Quinting, J., Pinto, J. G., Messori, G. (2021) A new view of heatwave dynamics and predictability over the Eastern Mediterranean. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-12-133-2021

2020

[44] De Luca, P., Messori, G., Faranda, D., Ward, P. J., Comou, D. (2020) Compound warm-dry and cold-wet events over the Mediterranean. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-11-793-2020

[43] Messori, G.*, Wada, R.* (equal contribution), Woods, C. (2020) A spatial model for return values of warm extremes in the high Arctic. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.3877

[42] Pons, F. M. E., Messori, G., Alvarez-Castro, M. C., Faranda, D. (2020) Sampling hyperspheres via extreme value theory: implications for measuring attractor dimensions. J. Stat. Phys., doi: 10.1007/s10955-020-02573-5

[41] Pausata, F. S. R., Gaetani, M., Messori, G., Berg, A., Maia de Souza, D., Sage, R. F., de Menocal, P. B. (2020) The greening of the Sahara: past changes and future implications. One Earth, doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.03.002

[40] De Luca, P., Messori, G., Wilby, R. L., Mazzoleni, M., Di Baldassarre, G. (2020) Concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scale. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-11-251-2020

[39] De Luca, P., Messori, G., Pons, F.M.E., Faranda, D. (2020) Dynamical systems theory sheds new light on compound climate extremes in Europe and Eastern North America. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.3757

[38] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Yiou, P. (2020) Diagnosing concurrent drivers of weather extremes: application to warm and cold days in North America. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-05106-3

[37] #Ye, K. and Messori, G. (2020) Two leading modes of wintertime atmospheric circulation and their contribution to the recent warm Arctic-cold Eurasia temperature pattern. J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0403.1

[36] Hochman, A., Alpert, P., Kunin, P., Rostkier-Edelstein, D., Harpaz, T., Saaroni, H., Messori, G. (2020) The dynamics of cyclones in the twentyfirst century: the Eastern Mediterranean as an example. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-05017-3

2019

[35] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2019) Generalisation properties of feed-forward neural networks trained on Lorenz systems. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., doi: 10.5194/npg-26-381-2019

[34] Faranda, D., Sato, Y., Messori, G., Moloney, N., Yiou, P. (2019) Minimal dynamical systems model of the northern hemisphere jet stream via embedding of climate data. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-10-555-2019

[33] Lembo, V., Messori, G., Lucarini, V., Graversen, R. G. (2019) Spectral decomposition and extremes of atmospheric meridional energy transport in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2019GL082105

[32] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2019) Weather and climate forecasting with neural networks: using GCMs with different complexity as a study-ground. Geosci. Mod. Dev., doi: 10.5194/gmd-12-2797-2019

[31] Vichi, M., Eayrs, C., Alberello, A., Bekker, A., Bennetts, L., Holland, D., de Jong, E., Joubert, W., MacHutchon, K., Messori, G., Mojica, J., Onorato, M., Saunders, C., Skatulla, S., Toffoli, A. (2019) Effects of an explosive polar cyclone crossing the Antarctic marginal ice zone. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2019GL082457

[30] Messori, G.*, Ruiz-Pérez, G.* (equal contribution), Manzoni, S., Vico, G. (2019) Climate drivers of the terrestrial carbon cycle variability in Europe. Env. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab1ac0

[29] Hochman, A., Alpert, P., Harpaz, T., Saaroni, H., Messori, G. (2019) A new dynamical systems perspective on atmospheric predictability: eastern Mediterranean weather regimes as a case study. Sci. Adv., doi:10.1126/sciadv.aau0936

[28] Faranda, D., Alvarez-Castro, M. C., Messori, G., Rodrigues, D., Yiou, P. (2019) The Hammam Effect or how a Warm Ocean Enhances Large Scale Atmospheric Predictability, Nature Communications, doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-09305-8

[27] Messori, G., Gaetani, M., Zhang, Q., Zhang, Q. Pausata, F.S.R. (2019) The water cycle of the mid-Holocene West African Monsoon: the role of vegetation and dust emission changes, Int. J. Climatol., doi: 10.1002/joc.5924

[26] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2019) How Global Warming Changes the Difficulty of Synoptic Weather Forecasting. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2018GL081856

[25] Messori, G., Davini, P., Alvarez-Castro, M.C., Pausata, F.S.R., Caballero, R., Yiou, P. (2019) On the low-frequency variability of wintertime Euro-Atlantic planetary wave-breaking. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4373-2

[24] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Vannistem, S. (2019) Attractor dimension of time-averaged climate observables: insights from a low-order ocean-atmosphere model. Tellus A, doi: 10.1080/16000870.2018.1554413

[23] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2019) Selective ensemble mean technique for severe European windstorms. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.3408

2018

[22] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2018) Predicting weather forecast uncertainty with machine learning, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.3410

[21] Rodrigues, D., Alvarez-Castro, M.-C., Messori, G., Yiou, P., Robin, Y., Faranda, D. (2018) Dynamical properties of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in the past 150 years in CMIP5 models and the 20CRv2C Reanalysis. J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0176.1

[20] Messori, G., #van Wees, D., Pausata, F.S.R., Acosta, J.-C., Hannachi, A., Dentener, F.J. (2018) Future atmospheric circulation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector and impacts on urban PM2.5 concentrations. Tellus B, doi: 10.1080/16000889.2018.1468704

[19] Bollasina, M. and Messori, G. (2018) On the link between the Subseasonal Evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Asian Climate. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4095-5

[D] Messori, G., Caballero, R., Bouchet, F., Faranda, D., Grotjahn, R., Harnik, N., Jewson, S., Pinto, J.G., Rivière, G., Woollings, T., Yiou, P. (2018) An interdisciplinary approach to the study of extreme weather events: large-scale atmospheric controls and insights from dynamical systems theory and statistical mechanics. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0296.1

[18] Messori, G., Woods, C., Caballero, R. (2018) On the drivers of wintertime temperature extremes in the High Arctic. J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0386.1

[C] Messori, G., Woods, C., Caballero, R. (2018) Corrigendum to: "On the drivers of wintertime temperature extremes in the High Arctic". J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0345.1

[17] Bartlett, R.E., Bollasina, M.A., Booth, B.B.B., Dunstone, N.J., Marenco, F., Messori, G., Bernie, D.J. (2018) Do differences in future sulphate emission pathways matter for near term climate? A case study for the Asian Monsoon, Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3726-6

2017

[16] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Alvarez-Castro, M.-C., Yiou, P. (2017) Dynamical properties and extremes of Northern Hemisphere climate fields over the past 60 years. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., doi: 10.5194/npg-24-713-2017

[15] Gaetani, M., Messori, G., Zhang, Q., Flamant, C., Pausata F.S.R. (2017) Understanding the mechanisms behind the northward extension of the West African Monsoon during the Mid-Holocene. J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0299.1

[14] Messori, G., Geen, R., Czaja, A. (2017) On the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Atmospheric Heat Transport in a Hierarchy of Models, J. Atmos. Sci., doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-16-0360.1

[13] Messori, G., Caballero, R., Faranda, D. (2017) A Dynamical Systems Approach to Studying Mid-Latitude Weather Extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1002/2017GL072879

[12] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Yiou, P. (2017) Dynamical Proxies of North Atlantic Predictability and Extremes. Sci. Rep., doi: 10.1038/srep41278

[11] Chiaccio, M., Pausata, F.S.R., Messori, G., Hannachi, A., Chin, M., Onskog, T., Ekman, A., Barrie, L. (2017) On the links between meteorological variables, aerosols and global tropical cyclone frequency. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., doi:10.1002/2015JD024593

2016

[10] Harnik, N., Messori, G., Caballero, R., Feldstein, S. (2016) The circumglobal North American wave pattern and its relation to cold events in Eastern North America. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/2016GL070760

[9] Lofverstrom, M., Caballero, R., Nilsson, J., Messori, G. (2016) Stationary Wave Reflection as a Mechanism for Zonalizing the Atlantic Winter Jet at the LGM, J. Atmos. Sci., doi:10.1175/JAS-D-15-0295.1

[8] Stiller-Reeve, M.A., Heuzé, C., Ball, W.T., White, R.H., Messori, G., van der Wiel, K., Madhaug, I., Eckes, A., O'Callaghan, A., Newland, M.J., Williams, S., Kasoar, M., Wittemeier, H.E. and Kumer, V. (2016) Improving together: better science writing through peer learning. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., doi:10.5194/hess-20-2965-2016

[7] Messori, G., Caballero, R., Gaetani, M. (2016) On cold spells in North America and storminess in Western Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/2016GL069392

[6] Pausata, F.S.R.*, Messori, G.* (equal contribution), Zhang, Q. (2016) Impacts of Dust Reduction on the Northward Expansion of the African Monsoon During the Green Sahara Period, Earth Plan. Sci. Lett. doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2015.11.049

2015 and earlier

[5] Messori, G. and Caballero, R. (2015) On double Rossby wave breaking in the North Atlantic, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., doi:10.1002/2015JD023854

[4] Messori, G. and Czaja, A. (2015) On local and zonal pulses of atmospheric heat transport in reanalysis data. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. doi: 10.1002/qj.2529

[B] Messori, G. and Kasoar, M. (2015) Air Pollutants as Mediators of Climate Change: Science and Policy. Weather, doi:10.1002/wea.2473

[3] Pausata, F.S.R., Gaetani, M., Messori, G., Kloster, S., Dentener, F. J. (2015) The role of aerosol in altering North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in winter and air-quality feedbacks. Atmos. Chem. Phys., doi:10.5194/acp-15-1725-2015

[2] Messori, G. and Czaja, A. (2014) Some considerations on the spectral features of meridional heat transport by transient eddies. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.2224

[A] Messori, G. (2013) The Long-range Forecasting Problem: Mythology, Science and Progress. Weather, doi: 10.1002/wea.2140

[1] Messori, G. and Czaja, A. (2013) On the sporadic nature of meridional heat transport by transient eddies. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.2011