Submitted

[*] #Faranda, D., Messori, G., Yiou, P., Thao, S., Pons, F., Dubrulle, B. Hurricanes as Bose-Einstein condensates of atmospheric dynamics, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci.
[*] #Scher, S., Jewson, S., Messori, G. Robust worst-case scenarios from ensemble forecasts, Weather Forecast.
[*] #Wu, M., Vico, G., Manzoni, S., Cai, Z., Bassiouni, M., Tian, F., Zhang, J., #Ye, K., Messori, G. Early growing season anomalies in vegetation activity determine the large-scale climate-vegetation coupling in Europe, J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci.
[*] Pausata, F. S. R., Messori, G., Yun, J., Jalihal, C. A., Bollasina, M. A., Marchitto, T. M. The remote response of the South Asian Monsoon to reduced dust emissions and Sahara greening during the middle Holocene, Clim. Past.
​[*] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. Spherical convolution and other forms of informed machine learning for deep neural network based weather forecasts. JAMES, resubmission pending.
[*] #Ye, K. and Messori, G. Inter-Model spread in the wintertime surface Arctic amplification in the CMIP6 models and the important role of internal climate variability. Glob. Planet. Change
[*] Jewson, S., #Scher, S., Messori G. Decide now or wait for the next forecast? Testing a decision framework using real forecasts and observations. Mon. Wea. Rev.

# denotes supervised students or post-docs. Only original research articles and full-length reviews are numbered.

2021

[50] Rusca, M., Messori, G., Di Baldassarre, G. Scenarios of human responses to unprecedented social-environmental extreme events. Earths Future, accepted

[49] Messori, G., Harnik, N., Madonna, E., Lachmy, O., Faranda, D. (2021) A dynamical systems characterisation of atmospheric jet regimes. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-12-233-2021

[48] Messori G. and Faranda, D. Technical Note: Characterising and comparing different palaeoclimates with dynamical systems theory. Clim. Past, accepted.

[47] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2021) Ensemble methods for neural network-based weather forecasts. JAMES, doi:10.1029/2020MS002331

[F] Caserini, S., Coyaud, S., Persico, G., Messori, G. (2021) Evaluating the scientific credentials of supporters of public petitions denying anthropogenic climate change. Tellus A, doi: 10.1080/16000870.2021.1875727

[46] Hochman, A., #Scher, S., Quinting, J., Pinto, J. G., Messori, G. (2021) A new view of heatwave dynamics and predictability over the Eastern Mediterranean. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-12-133-2021

2020

[E] Messori, G., Bevacqua, E., Caballero, R., Coumou, D., De Luca, P., Faranda, D., Kornhuber, K., Martius, O., Pons, F. M. E., Raymond, C., #Ye, K., Yiou, P., Zscheischler, J. Compound climate events and extremes in the mid-latitudes: dynamics, simulation and statistical characterisation. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., in press

[45] Hochman, A., #Scher, S. Quinting, J., Pinto, J. G., Messori, G. (2020) Dynamics and predictability of Cold Spells over the Eastern Mediterranean. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-020-05465-2

[44] De Luca, P., Messori, G., Faranda, D., Ward, P. J., Comou, D. (2020) Compound warm-dry and cold-wet events over the Mediterranean. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-11-793-2020

[43] Messori, G.*, Ryota, W.* (equal contribution), Woods, C. (2020) A spatial model for return values of warm extremes in the high Arctic. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.3877

[42] Pons, F. M. E., Messori, G., Alvarez-Castro, M. C., Faranda, D. (2020) Sampling hyperspheres via extreme value theory: implications for measuring attractor dimensions. J. Stat. Phys., doi: 10.1007/s10955-020-02573-5

[41] Pausata, F. S. R., Gaetani, M., Messori, G., Berg, A., Maia de Souza, D., Sage, R. F., de Menocal, P. B. (2020) The greening of the Sahara: past changes and future implications. One Earth, doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.03.002

[40] De Luca, P., Messori, G., Wilby, R. L., Mazzoleni, M., Di Baldassarre, G. (2020) Concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scale. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-11-251-2020

[39] De Luca, P., Messori, G., Pons, F.M.E., Faranda, D. (2020) Dynamical systems theory sheds new light on compound climate extremes in Europe and Eastern North America. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.3757

[38] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Yiou, P. (2020) Diagnosing concurrent drivers of weather extremes: application to warm and cold days in North America. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-05106-3

[37] #Ye, K. and Messori, G. (2020) Two leading modes of wintertime atmospheric circulation and their contribution to the recent warm Arctic-cold Eurasia temperature pattern. J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0403.1

[36] Hochman, A., Alpert, P., Kunin, P., Rostkier-Edelstein, D., Harpaz, T., Saaroni, H., Messori, G. (2020) The dynamics of cyclones in the twentyfirst century: the Eastern Mediterranean as an example. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-05017-3

2019

[35] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2019) Generalisation properties of feed-forward neural networks trained on Lorenz systems. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., doi: 10.5194/npg-26-381-2019

[34] Faranda, D., Sato, Y., Messori, G., Moloney, N., Yiou, P. (2019) Minimal dynamical systems model of the northern hemisphere jet stream via embedding of climate data. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-10-555-2019

[33] Lembo, V., Messori, G., Lucarini, V., Graversen, R. G. (2019) Spectral decomposition and extremes of atmospheric meridional energy transport in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2019GL082105

[32] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2019) Weather and climate forecasting with neural networks: using GCMs with different complexity as a study-ground. Geosci. Mod. Dev., doi: 10.5194/gmd-12-2797-2019

[31] Vichi, M., Eayrs, C., Alberello, A., Bekker, A., Bennetts, L., Holland, D., de Jong, E., Joubert, W., MacHutchon, K., Messori, G., Mojica, J., Onorato, M., Saunders, C., Skatulla, S., Toffoli, A. (2019) Effects of an explosive polar cyclone crossing the Antarctic marginal ice zone. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2019GL082457

[30] Messori, G.*, Ruiz-Pérez, G.* (equal contribution), Manzoni, S., Vico, G. (2019) Climate drivers of the terrestrial carbon cycle variability in Europe. Env. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab1ac0

[29] Hochman, A., Alpert, P., Harpaz, T., Saaroni, H., Messori, G. (2019) A new dynamical systems perspective on atmospheric predictability: eastern Mediterranean weather regimes as a case study. Sci. Adv., doi:10.1126/sciadv.aau0936

[28] Faranda, D., Alvarez-Castro, M. C., Messori, G., Rodrigues, D., Yiou, P. (2019) The Hammam Effect or how a Warm Ocean Enhances Large Scale Atmospheric Predictability, Nature Communications, doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-09305-8

[27] Messori, G., Gaetani, M., Zhang, Q., Zhang, Q. Pausata, F.S.R. (2019) The water cycle of the mid-Holocene West African Monsoon: the role of vegetation and dust emission changes, Int. J. Climatol., doi: 10.1002/joc.5924

[26] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2019) How Global Warming Changes the Difficulty of Synoptic Weather Forecasting. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2018GL081856

[25] Messori, G., Davini, P., Alvarez-Castro, M.C., Pausata, F.S.R., Caballero, R., Yiou, P. (2019) On the low-frequency variability of wintertime Euro-Atlantic planetary wave-breaking. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4373-2

[24] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Vannistem, S. (2019) Attractor dimension of time-averaged climate observables: insights from a low-order ocean-atmosphere model. Tellus A, doi: 10.1080/16000870.2018.1554413

[23] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2019) Selective ensemble mean technique for severe European windstorms. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.3408

2018

[22] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2018) Predicting weather forecast uncertainty with machine learning, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.3410

[21] Rodrigues, D., Alvarez-Castro, M.-C., Messori, G., Yiou, P., Robin, Y., Faranda, D. (2018) Dynamical properties of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in the past 150 years in CMIP5 models and the 20CRv2C Reanalysis. J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0176.1

[20] Messori, G., #van Wees, D., Pausata, F.S.R., Acosta, J.-C., Hannachi, A., Dentener, F.J. (2018) Future atmospheric circulation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector and impacts on urban PM2.5 concentrations. Tellus B, doi: 10.1080/16000889.2018.1468704

[19] Bollasina, M. and Messori, G. (2018) On the link between the Subseasonal Evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Asian Climate. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4095-5

[D] Messori, G., Caballero, R., Bouchet, F., Faranda, D., Grotjahn, R., Harnik, N., Jewson, S., Pinto, J.G., Rivière, G., Woollings, T., Yiou, P. (2018) An interdisciplinary approach to the study of extreme weather events: large-scale atmospheric controls and insights from dynamical systems theory and statistical mechanics. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0296.1

[18] Messori, G., Woods, C., Caballero, R. (2018) On the drivers of wintertime temperature extremes in the High Arctic. J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0386.1

[C] Messori, G., Woods, C., Caballero, R. (2018) Corrigendum to: "On the drivers of wintertime temperature extremes in the High Arctic". J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0345.1

[17] Bartlett, R.E., Bollasina, M.A., Booth, B.B.B., Dunstone, N.J., Marenco, F., Messori, G., Bernie, D.J. (2018) Do differences in future sulphate emission pathways matter for near term climate? A case study for the Asian Monsoon, Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3726-6

2017

[16] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Alvarez-Castro, M.-C., Yiou, P. (2017) Dynamical properties and extremes of Northern Hemisphere climate fields over the past 60 years. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., doi: 10.5194/npg-24-713-2017

[15] Gaetani, M., Messori, G., Zhang, Q., Flamant, C., Pausata F.S.R. (2017) Understanding the mechanisms behind the northward extension of the West African Monsoon during the Mid-Holocene. J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0299.1

[14] Messori, G., Geen, R., Czaja, A. (2017) On the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Atmospheric Heat Transport in a Hierarchy of Models, J. Atmos. Sci., doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-16-0360.1

[13] Messori, G., Caballero, R., Faranda, D. (2017) A Dynamical Systems Approach to Studying Mid-Latitude Weather Extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1002/2017GL072879

[12] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Yiou, P. (2017) Dynamical Proxies of North Atlantic Predictability and Extremes. Sci. Rep., doi: 10.1038/srep41278

[11] Chiaccio, M., Pausata, F.S.R., Messori, G., Hannachi, A., Chin, M., Onskog, T., Ekman, A., Barrie, L. (2017) On the links between meteorological variables, aerosols and global tropical cyclone frequency. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., doi:10.1002/2015JD024593

2016

[10] Harnik, N., Messori, G., Caballero, R., Feldstein, S. (2016) The circumglobal North American wave pattern and its relation to cold events in Eastern North America. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/2016GL070760

[9] Lofverstrom, M., Caballero, R., Nilsson, J., Messori, G. (2016) Stationary Wave Reflection as a Mechanism for Zonalizing the Atlantic Winter Jet at the LGM, J. Atmos. Sci., doi:10.1175/JAS-D-15-0295.1

[8] Stiller-Reeve, M.A., Heuzé, C., Ball, W.T., White, R.H., Messori, G., van der Wiel, K., Madhaug, I., Eckes, A., O'Callaghan, A., Newland, M.J., Williams, S., Kasoar, M., Wittemeier, H.E. and Kumer, V. (2016) Improving together: better science writing through peer learning. Hyrdol. Earth Syst. Sci., doi:10.5194/hess-20-2965-2016

[7] Messori, G., Caballero, R., Gaetani, M. (2016) On cold spells in North America and storminess in Western Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/2016GL069392

[6] Pausata, F.S.R.*, Messori, G.* (equal contribution), Zhang, Q. (2016) Impacts of Dust Reduction on the Northward Expansion of the African Monsoon During the Green Sahara Period, Earth Plan. Sci. Lett. doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2015.11.049

2015 and earlier

[5] Messori, G. and Caballero, R. (2015) On double Rossby wave breaking in the North Atlantic, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., doi:10.1002/2015JD023854

[4] Messori, G. and Czaja, A. (2015) On local and zonal pulses of atmospheric heat transport in reanalysis data. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. doi: 10.1002/qj.2529

[B] Messori, G. and Kasoar, M. (2015) Air Pollutants as Mediators of Climate Change: Science and Policy. Weather, doi:10.1002/wea.2473

[3] Pausata, F.S.R., Gaetani, M., Messori, G., Kloster, S., Dentener, F. J. (2015) The role of aerosol in altering North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in winter and air-quality feedbacks. Atmos. Chem. Phys., doi:10.5194/acp-15-1725-2015

[2] Messori, G. and Czaja, A. (2014) Some considerations on the spectral features of meridional heat transport by transient eddies. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.2224

[A] Messori, G. (2013) The Long-range Forecasting Problem: Mythology, Science and Progress. Weather, doi: 10.1002/wea.2140

[1] Messori, G. and Czaja, A. (2013) On the sporadic nature of meridional heat transport by transient eddies. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.2011

[3] Messori, G. and Czaja, A. (2014),  A Zonal View of Atmospheric Heat Transport Variability. SISC Conference Proceedings.

[2] Messori, G. and Czaja, A. (2013),  The temporal variability and associated spectral features of transient-eddy meridional heat transport. SISC Conference Proceedings.

[1] Ball, W., Craske, J., Czaja, A., Ingram, J., Messori, G., Mouradian, S., Sheldon., L., Tull, J., White, R., Zhang, F. (2012), Ocean Day. Grantham Institute for Climate Change.

[32] Messori, G., Caserini, S., Coyaud, S. Gli “uomini di scienza” che negano l’origine antropica del riscaldamento globale si occupano raramente di clima Climalteranti.it, 02/02/2021 (in Italian).

[31] Messori, G., Bellucci, A., Cacciamani, C. Comunicare il futuro climatico: lenta evoluzione o bruschi cambiamenti? Climalteranti.it, 11/01/2021 (in Italian).

[30] Messori, G. A new European effort to better understand extreme weather Co-publication EGU Climate Division Blog, EGU Atmospheric Sciences Division Blog, EGU Nonlinear Processes Division Blog, 11/11/2020.

[29] Messori, G. I nuovi record meteorologici si possono attribuire al cambiamento climatico? Nimbus Web, 16/07/2020 (in Italian).

[28] Messori, G. Attribuire singoli eventi estremi al cambiamento climatico: complesso ma possibile. Climalteranti.it, 03/06/2020 (in Italian).

[27] Caserini, S., Cassardo, C., della Volpe, C., Grosso, M., Messori, G.,  Palazzi, E., Coyaud, S. Accade nel 2019: una petizione per negare la scienza del clima. Climalteranti.it, 10/06/2019 (in Italian).

[26] Messori, G. and Della Volpe, C. La scienza del clima non è un'opinione: dai dati emerge la realtà. Climalteranti.it, 31/03/2019 (in Italian).

[25] ​Messori, G. and Faranda D. Of butterflies and climate: how mathematics helps us to better understand the atmosphere. EGU Climate Division Blog, 01/08/2017.

[24] Messori, G., Faranda, D., Caserini, S. Le obiezioni legittime, e quelle illegittime. Climalteranti.it, 15/11/2016 (in Italian).

[23] Caserini, S. and Messori, G. L'Agente Betulla contro l'Accordo di Parigi. Climalteranti.it, 05/10/2016 (in Italian).

[22] Piana, V., Castellari, S., Caserini, S., Messori, G., Grassi G. and Vitullo, M. La sostanza dell'Accordo di Parigi. Climalteranti.it, 16/12/2015 (in Italian).

[21] Messori, G., COP21: Impasse attorno alle perdite e danni, Agenzia di Stampa Giovanile, 07/12/2015 (in Italian).

[20] Messori, G., Why a debate over who should take responsibility for climate change’s impending humanitarian disaster is proving hard to solve at COP21, Climate & Environment at Imperial, 06/12/2015.

[19] Messori, G.,  COP21: La prospettiva dei piccoli stati insulari. Climalteranti.it, 04/12/2015 (in Italian).

[18] Messori, G. and Jézéquel, A., Loss and Damage vs. Detection and Attribution. CliM'Blog, 3/12/2015

[17] Messori, G. and Pausata, F.S.R., Gabriele e Francesco, alla conquista della meteorologia scandinava. Nimbus 73, 07/2015 (in Italian).

[16] Messori, G., Bocchiola, D., Tagliabue, L., Caserini, S., La verità non detta sul cambiamento climatico. Climalteranti.it, 03/06/2015 (in Italian).

[15] Messori, G., I am a scientist. Should I also be a journalist? ClimateSnack, 17/10/2014.

[14] Messori, G., Non si scherza con la salute! Climalteranti.it, 11/04/2014 (in Italian).

[13] Messori, G., A slow start to a global climate treaty. Climate at Imperial, 03/04/2014.

[12] Caserini, S., Messori, G. and Piana, V., Quinto rapporto IPCC: (molti) impatti, (poco) adattamento, (grandi) vulnerabilità. Climalteranti.it, 31/03/2014 (in Italian).

[11] Messori, G., Da Bonn, aggiornamenti sui negoziati climatici. Climalteranti.it, 21/03/2014 (in Italian).

[10] Messori, G., Cronache da Bonn: alti e bassi nel negoziato intermedio sul clima. Italian Climate Network, 19/03/2014 (in Italian).

[9] Messori, G.,  An update from the Bonn Climate Talks. Healthy Planet UK, 14/03/2014.

[8] Messori, G., Climate Extremes – Why the past is just as important as the future. ClimateSnack, 19/02/2014.

[7] Braithwaite, I. and Messori, G., Cough for Coal at COP19. ClimateSnack, 30/01/2014.

[6] Messori, G., Beyond adaptation: loss and damage negotiations at the United Nations. Climate at Imperial, 18/12/2013.

[5] Messori, G., Loss and damage: the third way to face climate change impacts. Climate Science & Policy, 05/12/2013.

[4] Messori, G., A First Step in Health-Conscious Loss and Damage. Healhty Planet UK, 15/11/2013.

[3]Messori, G., COP19: il futuro é nel 'loss and damage'. Scienzainrete.it, 13/11/2013 (in Italian).

[2] Messori, G., Warm Winds of Change: Sporadic Heat Transport in the Atmosphere. ClimateSnack, 02/09/2013.

[1] Messori, G., Climate research - why economists and scientists need to talk more. The Student Hubs Blog, 15/05/2013.

[2] Messori, G. (2013), The Sporadic Nature of Meridional Heat Transport in the Atmosphere. Ph. D. thesis, Space and Atmospheric Physics Group, Imperial College London, UK.

[1] Messori, G. (2010), Caspian Sea Level and Climate Change. M. Sci. thesis, Space and Atmospheric Physics Group, Imperial College London, UK.