Submitted

[*] Martellini O Nocentini, M., Pandey, S., #Olivetti, L., Defilippo, F., Wybrant, M., #Worou, K., Mazzoleni, M., Quiros-Roldan, E., Byakika, P., Torti, C., Magnusson, C., Gasparrini, A., Messori, G., Raffetti, E. Climatic Drivers of Malaria risk in Children Under Five: A Large-Scale Analysis of individual-level data for 350,000 children in 26 Sub-Saharan African Countries. Cell Rep. Sust.

[*] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Alvarez-Castro, C., Bourdin, S. Attributing precipitation, wind and socioeconomic exposure in Hurricane Melissa (2025). Env. Res. Lett.

[*] Yang, X. et al., incl. Messori, G. Human-Induced Westerly Jet Shifts Coordinate Terrestrial Productivity at the Hemispheric Scale. Nature Communications.

[*] Seviour, W.J.M., Finkel, J., Rupp, P., Mudhar, R., Butler, A.H., Garfinkel, C.I., Hitchcock, P., Ayarzagüena, B., Hong, D.-C., Hyun, Y.-K., Kim, H., Lim, E.-P.,De Maeseneire, D., Messori, G., Koren, G., Sigmond, M., Simpson, I.R., Son, S.-W. Forecast-based attribution of the role of stratospheric variability in weather extremes. Wea. Clim. Dyn.

[*] #Samantaray, A., Messori, G. A Global Drought Dataset from Clustering-Based Event Identification with Integrated Population, and GDP Exposure and Socioeconomic Impacts. Sci. Rep.

[*] Börgel, F., Ruvalcaba Baroni, I., Barghorn, L., Borchert, L., Cahill, B., Dutheil, C., Esters, L., Falarz, M., Filipsson, H.L., Gröger, M., Hänninen, J., Hieronymus, M., Jakobsen, E., Pasha Karami, M., Kulinski, K., Liblik, T., Meier, H.E.M., Messori, G., Naumov, L., Neumann, T., Post, P., Rehder, g., Rutgersson, A., Voelker, G. S. Teleconnections to the Baltic Sea Region: Controls, Predictability and Consequences. Earth Sys. Dyn.

[*] #Strigunova, I., Messori, G. The Alaskan Ridge Revisited: Scale-Dependent Pathways to Pan-Atlantic Cold and Windy Extremes. J. Geophys. Res. Atm..

[*] Kornuber, K., Bevacqua, E., de Brito, M.M., Jäger, W.S., Rivoire, P., Rogers, C.D.W., Batibeniz, F., Carruthers, J., de Michele, C., de Angeli, S., Deidda, C., de Ruiter, M.C., Fink, A.H., Goulart, H.M.D., Küpfer, K., Ludwig, P., Maraun, D., Messori, G., Nath, S., O'Laughlin, F., Pinto, J.G., Poschlod, B., Ramos, A.M., Raymond, C., Ribeiro, A.F.S., Singh, D., Suarez Gutierrez, L., Ward, P.J., White, C. Invited perspectives: Towards usable compound event research. Nat. Haz. Earth Sys. Sci..

[*] #Schutte, K.M., #Olivetti, L., #Krouma, M, Messori, G. Stratospheric and tropospheric contributions to North American cold temperatures and subsequent North Atlantic jet stream anomalies. Wea. Clim. Extremes.

[*] #Krouma, M., Messori, G. Ensemble forecasts of isolated and compound wind and precipitation extremes in Europe using a stochastic weather generator. Geosci. Mod. Dev.

[*] #Shyrokaya, A., Uttarwar, S., #Samantaray, A., Pappenberger, F., Di Baldassarre, G., Pechlivanidis, I., Stainoh, F., Majone, B., Messori, G. Seasonal Pre-planting Drought Impact-based Forecasting of Crop Yield in India. Earth's Future.

[*] #Leeding, R., Messori, G. Compound North American cold and European wind extremes in ERA5 and CMIP6 historical and future simulations. Part 1: Surface extremes. J. Geophys. Res. Atm.

[*] #Lindersson, S., Di Baldassarre, G., Parker, C.F., Bondesson, S., Koivisto, J., #Olivetti, L., Akinyemi, F.O., Messori, G., Biella, R., Burchardt, S., Canedo Rosso, C., de Goër de Herve, M., Deegan, F.M., Döring, S., Dubois, K., Eriksson, L.M., Fernandez, J., Gebru, B., Göteman, M., Granberg, M., Haas, J., Hedelin, B., Hermansson, H., #Holmberg, E., Johansson, M., Karagiorgos, K., Mård, J., Merli, C., Mondino, E., Nyberg, L., Pavlovic, E.P., Shrestha, S.R., Rutgersson, A., Shen, X., #Shyrokaya, A., Thandlam, V., Troll, V.R., Turesson, K., Wennström, P., Nohrstedt, D. Unpacking and navigating complexity in disaster risk reduction. Commun. Sustainability

[*] Lembo, V., Messori, G., Faranda, D., Galfi, V.M., Graversen, R.G., Pons, F.M.E. Understanding concurrent heatwaves from a meridional heat transport perspective. Wea. Clim. Dyn.

[*] Dorrington, J., Messori, G. Dynamically-informed extreme event attribution using circulation imprints. Geophys. Res. Lett.

[*] #Holmberg, E., Ballester, J., Faranda, D., Turrubiates, R., Messori, G.. Changes in atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with increased European heat-related mortality. Nature Med.

[*] #Krouma, M., Messori, G. Predictability assessment of cold-wet-windy pan-Atlantic extremes. Wea. Clim. Extremes

[*] Li, N., Thiery, W., Zahra, S., de Brito, M., #Worou, K., Kurfalı, M., Lampe, S., Muñoz, P., Flynn, C., Trigoso, C., Nivre, J., Zscheischler, J., Messori, G. Wikimpacts 1.0: A new global climate impact database based on automated information extraction from Wikipedia. Nat. Haz. Earth Sys. Sci.

[*] Lu, C., Nogherotto, R., Alberti, T., Messori, G., Coppola, E., Faranda, D. Models Confirm that Recent European Wildfires Are Exacerbated by Anthropogenic Climate Change. Env. Res. Lett., resubmission pending

[*] Cadau, M., Messori, G., Gaetani, M., Fosser, G., Bordoni, S., Sannino, G. On the relationship between Ural blocking and Arctic-midlatitude thermal gradient. Geophys. Res. Lett., resubmission pending

[*] De Luca, P., Messori, G., Faranda, D., Coumou, D. Global warming makes weather in boreal summer more persistent. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., resubmission pending

# denotes supervised students or post-docs. Original research articles, reviews, overviews and perspectives are numbered; peer-reviewed commentaries, meeting reports and similar are assigned a letter.

2026

[135]#Lopez, F., Czaja, A., Messori, G., Rutgersson, A. Modulation of North Atlantic Atmospheric RIvers by the Gulf Stream. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc., accepted.

[134] Messori, G., Boyd, E., Nivre, J., Raffetti, E. Challenges and Opportunities for Understanding Societal Impacts of Climate Extremes, Earth Syst. Dynam., accepted.

[133] #Leeding, R., Messori, G. Compound North American and European wind extremes in ERA5 and CMIP6 historical and future simulations. Part 2: Dynamical pathways. J. Geophys. Res. Atm., accepted.

[132] Raffetti, E., Döring, S., Messori, G., Zuccolo, L. (2026). Challenges in understanding the effect of climate extremes and climatic factors on maternal and infant health. Nature Health, doi: 10.1038/s44360-025-00030-9

[131] Jewson, S., #Olivetti, L., Messori, G., Northrop, P., Sweeting, T. (2026). An Objective Bayesian Method for Including Parameter Uncertainty in Ensemble Model Output Statistics. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.70108

2025

[130] #Lopez, F., #Olivetti, L., Vallejo-Bernal, S. M., Rutgersson, A., Messori, G. (2025). Can data-driven weather models accurately forecast atmospheric rivers? Env. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae1e8e

[129] #Lindersson, S., Messori, G. (2025). SHEDIS-Temperature: Linking temperature-related disaster impacts to subnational data on meteorology and human exposure. Earth Sys. Sci. Data, doi: 10.5194/essd-17-6379-2025

[128] #Olivetti, L., Messori, G (2025). Whose weather is it? A fairness framework for data-driven weather forecasting. Env. Res. Lett. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae21f5

[127] Dong, C., Messori, G., Faranda, D., Gualandi, A., Lucarini, V., Mengaldo, G. (2025). Spatio-temporal Dynamical Indices for Complex Systems. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2025.117248

[126] Keel, T., Brierley, C., Messori, G., White, R. H. (2025). Representing the teleconnection between the jet stream and extreme cold air outbreaks over North America. Geophys. Res. Lett, doi: 10.1029/2025GL116984

[125] #Holmberg, E., Quijal, M., Ballester, J.* Messori, G.* (equal contribution) (2025) Skillful heat-related mortality forecasting during recent deadly European summers. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., doi: 10.1073/pnas.2426516122
**PNAS commentary on paper.

[124] #Stergiou, P., Segalini, A., Messori, G. (2025) Concurrent wintertime cold spells in North America and warm or cold spells in Europe. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-025-07856-9

[123] #Worou, K., Messori, G. (2025). Compounding droughts and floods amplify socio-economic impacts. Env. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/adfe82

[122] Reiter, A.K., Messori, G., Faranda, D., Larsen, M.A.D., Drews, M. (2025) Robustness of Dynamical Coupling between wintertime European Weather Extremes and the Large-Scale Circulation. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-025-07846-x.

[121] #Lopez-Marti, F., Wu, L. Messori, G., Rutgersson, A. (2025). Moisture Sources throughout the Life-cycle of an Atmospheric River: Storm Dennis Case Study. J. Geophys. Res. Atm., doi: 10.1029/2024JD042876.

[120] Loriani, S., Aksenov, Y., McKay, A.D., Bala, G., Born, A., Chiessi, C.M., Dijkstra, H., Donges, J.F., Drijfhout, S., England, M.H., Fedorov, A.V., Jackson, L., Kornhuber, K., Messori, G., Pausata, F.S.R., Rynders, S., Salée, J.-B., Sinha, B., Sherwood, S., Swingedouw, D., Tharammal, T. Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025 **ESD Highlight Article

[119] Pons, F.M.E., Tommasi, A., Messori, G., Dulac, F., Faranda, D. (2025). Assessing climate change impacts on the March 2024 compound floods and Saharan dust outbreak in Europe. J. Geophys. Res. Atm., doi: 10.1029/2024JD042218

[118] #Flynn, C.M., Mömken, J., Pinto, J.G., #Schutte, M., Messori, G (2025). CLIMK–WINDS: A New Database of Extreme European Winter Windstorms. Earth Sys. Sci. Data., doi: 10.5194/essd-17-4431-2025

[117] Platzer, P., Chapron, B., Messori, G. (2025). Disentangling Density and Geometry in Weather Regime Dimensions using Stochastic Twins. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., doi: 10.1038/s41612-025-01086-w

[116] Faranda, D. Sato, Y., Dong, C., Gualandi, A., Noyelle, R., Alberti, T., Dubrulle, B., Fery, L., Messori, G., Vrac, M., Ayar, P. V., Yiou, P., Mengaldo, G. (2025) El Nino and droughts in Southeast Asia: A stochastic-chaotic modeling approach. Phys. Rev. E., doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.111.064209

[115] Messori, G., Muheki, D., Batibeniz, F., Bevacqua, E., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Thiery, W. (2025) Global mapping of concurrent hazards and impacts associated with climate extremes under climate change. Earth's Future, doi: 10.1029/2025EF006325

[114] #Riboldi, J., Dorrington, J., #Krouma, M., #Leeding, R., Messori, G. (2025) Explaining pan-Atlantic cold and windy extremes using an analog-based approach. J. Geophys. Res. Atm., doi: 10.1029/2024JD041513

[113] #Schutte, M., Portal, A., Lee, S. H., Messori, G. (2025) Dynamics of stratospheric wave reflection over the North Pacific. Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/wcd-6-521-2025

[112] #Shyrokaya A., Pappenberger F., Messori, G., Pechlivanidis I., Cloke H., Di Baldassarre, G. (2025) How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe. Env. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/adb869

[111] #Lopez-Marti, F., Ginesta, M., Faranda, D., Rutgersson, A., Yiou, P., Wu, L., Messori, G. (2025) Future changes of compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-16-169-2025

2024

[110] #Holmberg, E., Tietsche, S., Messori, G. (2024) Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.4885

[109] #Olivetti, L., Messori, G. (2024) Do data-driven models beat numerical models in forecasting weather extremes? A comparison of IFS HRES, Pangu-Weather, and GraphCast. Geosci. Mod. Dev., doi: 10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024.

[108] Faranda, D.*, Messori, G.* (equal contribution), Alberti, T., Alvarez-Castro, M. C., Caby, T., Cavicchia, L., Coppola, E., Donner, R., Dubrulle, B., Galfi, V. M., #Holmberg, E., Lembo, V., Noyelle, R., Spagnolo, B., Vaienti, S., Valenti, D., Yiou, P., Wormell, C. (2024) Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events. Phys. Rev. E, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001

[107] Rusca, M., Sverdlik, A., Acharya, A., Basel, B., Boyd, E., Comelli, T., Dodman, D., Fraser, A., Harris, D.M., #Lindersson, S., Mazzoleni, M., Mbah, M.F., Mitlin, D.,Ogra, A., Pelling, M., Raffetti, E., Sultana, F., Thompson, E., Tozzi, A., Zwarteveen, M., Messori, G. (2024) Plural Climate Storylines to foster just urban futures. Nature Cities, doi: 10.1038/s44284-024-00133-6

[106] Dong, C., Noyelle, R., Messori, G., Gualandi, A., Fery, L., Yiou, P., Vrac, M., D’Andrea, F., Camargo, S.J., Coppola, E., Balsamo, G., Chen C., Faranda, D. and Mengaldo, G. (2024) Indo-Pacific regional extremes aggravated by changes in tropical weather patterns. Nature Geosci., doi: 10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024.

[105] Messori, G., Segalini, A., Ramos, A. M. (2024) Climatology and trends in concurrent temperature extremes in the global extratropics. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024.

[104] Segalini, A., #Riboldi, J., Wirth, V., Messori, G. (2024) A linear assessment of barotropic Rossby wave propagation in different background flow configurations. Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024

[103] Gaetani, M., Messori, G., Pausata, F.S.R., Tiwari, S., Alvarez-Castro, M., Zhang, Q. (2024) Mid-Holocene climate at mid-latitudes: assessing the impact of the Saharan greening. Clim. Past, doi: 10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024

[J] Lembo, V., Bordoni, S., Bevacqua, E., Domeisen, D., Franzke, C., Galfi, V.M., Garfinkel, C., Grams, C., Hochman, A., Jha, R., Kornhuber, K., Kwasniok, F., Lucarini, V., Messori, G., Pappert, D., Perez-Fernandez, I., #Riboldi, J., Russo, E., Shaw, T.A., e Tiffany A. Shaw, #Strigunova, I., Strnad, F., Yiou, P., Zagar, N. (2024) Dynamics, statistics and predictability of Rossby waves, heatwaves and spatially compounding extreme events. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0145.1

[102] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Coppola, E., Alberti, T., Vrac, M., Pons, F.M.E., Yiou, P., Saint Lu, M., Hisi A.N.S., Brockmann, P., Dafis, S., Vautard, R. (2024) ClimaMeter: Contextualising Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate. Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024

[101] #Stanković, A. Messori, G., Pinto, J.G., Caballero, R. (2024) Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic. Wea. Clim. Dyn. doi: 10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024

[100] Hepworth, E., Messori, G., Vichi, M. (2024) Synoptic-scale extreme variability of winter Antarctic sea-ice concentration and its link to Southern Ocean extratropical cyclones. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, doi: 10.1029/2023JC019825

[99] Mömken, J., Pinto, J.G., Messori, G. (2024) Windstorm losses in Europe - What to gain from damage datasets, Wea. Clim. Extremes, doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100661

[98] Muheki, D., Deijns A.A.J., Bevacqua, E., Messori, G., Zscheischler, J., Thiery, W. (2024) The perfect storm? Co-occurring climate extremes in East Africa. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-15-429-2024

[97] #Olivetti, L., Messori, G. (2024) Advances and Prospects of Deep Learning for Medium-Range Extreme Weather Forecasting. Geosci. Mod. Dev., doi: 10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024 **GMD highlight article

[96] Raffetti, E., Ahrne, M., Döring, S., Hagström, A., Mazzoleni, M., Messori, G., Rusca, M., Zarantonello, L. (2024) Sustainable transformation for healthcare systems in a changing climate. Cell Reports Sustainability, doi: 10.1016/j.crsus.2024.100054

[95] Pons F.M.E., Yiou, P., Jézéquel, A., Messori, G. (2024) Simulating the Western North America Heatwave of 2021 with Analogue Importance Sampling, Wea. Clim. Extremes, doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100651

[94] Lee, S.H. and Messori, G.. (2024) The Dynamical Footprint of Year-Round North American Weather Regimes. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2023GL107161.

[93] #Olivetti, L., Messori, G., Jin, S. (2024) A Quantile Generalised Additive Approach for Compound Climate Extremes: Pan Atlantic Extremes as a Case Study. JAMES, doi: 10.1029/2023MS003753

[92] Madruga de Brito, M., Sodoge, J., Fekete, A., Hagenlocher, M., Koks, E., Kuhlicke, C., Messori, G., de Ruiter, M., Schweizer, P.-J., Ward, P. J. (2024) Uncovering the dynamics of multi-sector impacts of hydrological extremes: a methods overview. Earth's Future, doi:10.1029/2023EF003906

[91] #Shyrokaya, A., Messori, G., Pechlivanidis I., Pappenberger F., Cloke H., Di Baldassarre G. (2024) Significant relationships between drought indicators and impacts for the 2018-2019 drought in Germany. Env. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d9

[90] #Shyrokaya, A., Pappenberger, F., Pechlivanidis, I., Messori, G., Khatami, S., Mazzoleni, M., Di Baldassarre, G. (2024) Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact-based forecasting of droughts, WIREs Water, doi: 10.1002/wat2.1698

2023

[89] #Leeding, R., #Riboldi, J., Messori, G. (2023) Modulation of North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones and Extreme Weather in Europe during North American Cold Spells. Wea. Clim. Extremes, doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100629.

[88] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2023) Physics-inspired adaptions to low-parameter neural network weather forecast systems. Artif. Intell. Earth Sys., doi: 10.1175/AIES-D-23-0046.1

[87] Messori, G. and Dorrington, J. (2023) A joint perspective on North American and Euro-Atlantic weather regimes, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2023GL104696

[86] Tersigni, I., Alberello, A., Messori, G., Vichi, M., Onorato, M., Toffoli, A. (2023) High-resolution thermal imaging in the Antarctic marginal ice zone: Skin temperature heterogeneity and effects on heat fluxes. Earth and Space Science, doi: 10.1029/2023EA003078

[85] Papritz, L., Murto, S., Röthlisberger, M., Caballero, R., Messori, G., Svensson, G., Wernli, H. (2023) The role of local and remote processes for wintertime surface energy budget extremes over Arctic sea ice, J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0883.1

[84] Rusca, M., Mazzoleni, M., Barcena, A., Savelli E., Messori, G. (2023) Speculative political ecologies: (re)imagining urban futures of climate extremes, J. Pol. Ecol., doi: 10.2458/jpe.4827

[83] Pons, F. M. E., Messori, G., Faranda, D. (2023) Statistical performance of local attractor dimension estimators in non-Axiom A dynamical systems, Chaos, doi: 10.1063/5.0152370

[82] #Holmberg, E., Messori, G., Caballero, R., Faranda, D. (2023) The link between European warm temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence. Earth. Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-14-737-2023.

[81] #Riboldi, J., #Leeding, R., Segalini, A., Messori, G. (2023) Multiple large-scale dynamical pathways for pan-Atlantic compound cold and windy extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2022GL102528

[80] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Bourdin, S., Vrac, M., Thao, S., Riboldi, J., Fromang, S., Yiou, P. (2023) Correcting biases in tropical cyclone intensities in low-resolution datasets using dynamical systems metrics, Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-023-06794-8

[79] Kornhuber, K.* and Messori, G.* (equal contribution). Recent increase in a recurrent pan-Atlantic wave-pattern driving concurrent wintertime extremes, Bull. Am. Met. Soc., doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0295.1

[J] Kleidon, A., Messori, G., Baidya Roy, S., Didenkulova, I., Zeng, N. (2023) Editorial: Global warming is due to an enhanced greenhouse effect, and anthropogenic heat emissions currently play a negligible role at the global scale, Earth Sys. Dyn. , doi: 10.5194/esd-14-241-2023

[78] Messori, G. and Faranda, D. (2023) On the Systematic Occurrence of Compound Cold Spells in North America and Wet or Windy Extremes in Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2022GL101008.

[77] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Jézéquel, A., Vrac, M., Yiou, P. (2023) Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., doi: 10.1073/pnas.2214525120

[76] Murto, S., Papritz, L., Messori, G., Caballero, R., Svensson, G., Wernli, H. (2023) Extreme surface energy budget anomalies in the High Arctic, J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0209.1

[75] #Galfi, M. and Messori, G. (2023) Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe, Env. Res. Lett., doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acaedf

[I] #Galfi, M. and Messori, G. (2023) Erratum: Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe, Env. Res. Lett., doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acbdb3

[74] Lucarini, V., #Galfi, M., #Riboldi, J.,Messori, G. (2023) Typicality of the 2021 Western North America Summer Heatwave, Env. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/acab77

[73] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Yiou, P., Thao, S., Pons, F.M.E., Dubrulle, B. (2023) Dynamical footprints of hurricanes in the tropical dynamics, Chaos, doi: 10.1063/5.0093732

[72] Stoll, P.J. Graversen, R.G., Messori, G. (2023) The global atmospheric energy transport analysed by a wavelength-based scale separation, Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023

[71] #Leeding, R., #Riboldi, J., Messori, G. (2023) On Pan-Atlantic cold, wet and windy compound extremes, Wea. Clim. Extremes, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2022.100524

[70] Jewson, S., Messori, G., Barbato, G., Mercogliano, P., Mysiak, J., Sassi, M. (2023) Developing Representative Impact Scenarios From Climate Projection Ensembles, With Application to UKCP18 and EURO-CORDEX Precipitation, JAMES, doi:10.1029/2022MS003038.

[69] Rusca, M., Savelli, E., Di Baldassarre, G., Biza, A., Messori, G. (2023) Unprecedented droughts are expected to exacerbate urban inequalities in Southern Africa. Nat. Clim. Change, doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01546-8.

2022

[68]Ginesta-Fernandez, M., Yiou, P., Messori, G., Faranda, D. (2022) A methodology for attributing severe extratropical cyclones to climate change based on reanalysis data: the case study of storm Alex 2020. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06565-x

[67] Faranda, D., Bourdin, S., Ginesta, M., Krouma, M., Noyelle, R., Pons, F., Yiou, P., Messori, G. (2022) A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021. Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022

[66] Messori, G., Kretschmer, M., Lee, S., Matthias, V. (2022) Stratospheric Downward Wave Reflection Events Modulate North American Weather Regimes and Cold Spells. Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022

[H] Messori, G., Kretschmer, M., Lee, S., Matthias, V. (2024) Corrigendum to “Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells” published in Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1215–1236, 2022. Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi: doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022-corrigendum

[65] Lembo, V., Fabiano, F., #Galfi, V. M., Graversen, R., Lucarini, V. and Messori, G. (2022) Meridional Energy Transport Extremes and the general circulation of NH mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers, Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022

[64] #Wu., M., Manzoni, S., Vico, G., Bastos, A., de Vries, F., Messori, G. (2022) Drought legacy in sub-seasonal vegetation state and sensitivity to climate over the Northern Hemisphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2022GL098700

[63] Messori, G.*, #Wu., M.* (equal contribution), Vico, G., #Galfi, V. M. (2022) Atmospheric jet stream variability reflects vegetation activity in Europe, Agr. For. Met., doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109008

[62] Hepworth, E., Messori, G., Vichi, M. (2022) Association between extreme atmospheric anomalies over Antarctic sea ice, Southern Ocean polar cyclones and atmospheric rivers, J. Geophys. Res. Atm., doi: 10.1029/2021JD036121

[61] Hochman, A., Marra, F., Messori, G., Pinto, J.G., Raveh-Rubin, S., Yosef, Y., Zittis, G. (2022) Extreme Weather and Societal Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean, Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-13-749-2022

[60] #Ye, K., Messori, G., Chen, D., Woollings, T. (2022) An NAO-dominated mode of atmospheric circulation drives large decadal changes in wintertime surface climate and snow mass over Eurasia, Env. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac592f

[59] Marcheggiani, A., Ambaum, M., Messori, G.  (2022) The Life Cycle of Meridional Heat Flux Peaks. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.4249

[58] Jewson, S., #Scher, S., Messori, G. (2022) Communicating Properties of Changes in Lagged Weather Forecasts. Wea. For., doi:10.1175/WAF-D-21-0086.1

[57] Hochman, A., #Scher, S. Quinting, J., Pinto, J. G., Messori, G. (2022) Dynamics and predictability of Cold Spells over the Eastern Mediterranean. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-020-05465-2

[56] Nohrstedt, D., Parker, C., von Uexkull, N., Mård, J., Nyberg, L., Petrova, K., Albrecht, F., Göteman, M., Hileman, J., Messori, G., Di Baldassarre, G. (2022) Disaster Risk Reduction and the limits of truisms: improving the knowledge and practice interface. Clim. Risk Management, doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102661

2021

[55] Hochman, A., Messori, G., Quinting, F. J., Pinto, J. G., Grams, C. M. (2021) Do Atlantic-European weather regimes physically exist? Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2021GL095574.
**Wiley top downloaded article

[54] #Ye, K. and Messori, G. (2021) Inter-model spread in the wintertime Arctic amplification in the CMIP6 models and the importance of internal climate variability. Glob. Plan. Ch., doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103543

[53] Pausata, F. S. R., Messori, G., Yun, J., Jalihal, C. A., Bollasina, M. A., Marchitto, T. M. (2021) The remote response of the South Asian Monsoon to reduced dust emissions and Sahara greening during the middle Holocene. Clim. Past, doi: 10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021

[52] #Scher, S., Jewson, S., Messori, G.  (2021) Robust worst-case scenarios from ensemble forecasts. Wea. For., doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0219.1

[G] Messori, G., Bevacqua, E., Caballero, R., Coumou, D., De Luca, P., Faranda, D., Kornhuber, K., Martius, O., Pons, F. M. E., Raymond, C., #Ye, K., Yiou, P., Zscheischler, J. (2021) Compound climate events and extremes in the mid-latitudes: dynamics, simulation and statistical characterisation. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0289.1

[F] Ernakovich, J.G., Eklund, N., Varner, R.K., Kirchner, N., Jeuring, J.,Duderstadt, K., Granebeck, A., Golubeva, E., ASIAQ participants including Messori, G. (2021) Is a common goal a false hope in convergence research?: Opportunities and challenges of international convergence research to address Arctic change. Earth's Future, doi: 10.1029/2020EF001865

[51] #Wu, M., Vico, G., Manzoni, S., Cai, Z., Bassiouni, M., Tian, F., Zhang, J., #Ye, K., Messori, G. (2021) Early growing season anomalies in vegetation activity determine the large-scale climate-vegetation coupling in Europe. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci., doi: 10.1029/2020JG006167

[50] Jewson, S., #Scher, S., Messori, G. (2021) Decide now or wait for the next forecast? Testing a decision framework using real forecasts and observations. Mon. Wea. Rev, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-20-0392.1

[49] Rusca, M., Messori, G., Di Baldassarre, G. (2021) Scenarios of human responses to unprecedented social-environmental extreme events. Earth's Future, doi: 10.1029/2020EF001911

[48] Messori G. and Faranda, D. (2021) Technical Note: Characterising and comparing different palaeoclimates with dynamical systems theory. Clim. Past, doi: 10.5194/cp-17-545-2021

[47] Messori, G., Harnik, N., Madonna, E., Lachmy, O., Faranda, D. (2021) A dynamical systems characterisation of atmospheric jet regimes. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-12-233-2021
**ESD highlight article

[46] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2021) Ensemble methods for neural network-based weather forecasts. JAMES, doi:10.1029/2020MS002331

[E] Caserini, S., Coyaud, S., Persico, G., Messori, G. (2021) Evaluating the scientific credentials of supporters of public petitions denying anthropogenic climate change. Tellus A, doi: 10.1080/16000870.2021.1875727

[45] Hochman, A., #Scher, S., Quinting, J., Pinto, J. G., Messori, G. (2021) A new view of heatwave dynamics and predictability over the Eastern Mediterranean. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-12-133-2021

2020

[44] De Luca, P., Messori, G., Faranda, D., Ward, P. J., Comou, D. (2020) Compound warm-dry and cold-wet events over the Mediterranean. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-11-793-2020

[43] Messori, G.*, Wada, R.* (equal contribution), Woods, C. (2020) A spatial model for return values of warm extremes in the high Arctic. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.3877

[42] Pons, F. M. E., Messori, G., Alvarez-Castro, M. C., Faranda, D. (2020) Sampling hyperspheres via extreme value theory: implications for measuring attractor dimensions. J. Stat. Phys., doi: 10.1007/s10955-020-02573-5

[41] Pausata, F. S. R., Gaetani, M., Messori, G., Berg, A., Maia de Souza, D., Sage, R. F., de Menocal, P. B. (2020) The greening of the Sahara: past changes and future implications. One Earth, doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.03.002

[40] De Luca, P., Messori, G., Wilby, R. L., Mazzoleni, M., Di Baldassarre, G. (2020) Concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scale. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-11-251-2020

[39] De Luca, P., Messori, G., Pons, F.M.E., Faranda, D. (2020) Dynamical systems theory sheds new light on compound climate extremes in Europe and Eastern North America. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.3757

[38] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Yiou, P. (2020) Diagnosing concurrent drivers of weather extremes: application to warm and cold days in North America. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-05106-3

[37] #Ye, K. and Messori, G. (2020) Two leading modes of wintertime atmospheric circulation and their contribution to the recent warm Arctic-cold Eurasia temperature pattern. J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0403.1

[36] Hochman, A., Alpert, P., Kunin, P., Rostkier-Edelstein, D., Harpaz, T., Saaroni, H., Messori, G. (2020) The dynamics of cyclones in the twentyfirst century: the Eastern Mediterranean as an example. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-05017-3

2019

[35] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2019) Generalisation properties of feed-forward neural networks trained on Lorenz systems. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., doi: 10.5194/npg-26-381-2019

[34] Faranda, D., Sato, Y., Messori, G., Moloney, N., Yiou, P. (2019) Minimal dynamical systems model of the northern hemisphere jet stream via embedding of climate data. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-10-555-2019

[33] Lembo, V., Messori, G., Lucarini, V., Graversen, R. G. (2019) Spectral decomposition and extremes of atmospheric meridional energy transport in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2019GL082105

[32] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2019) Weather and climate forecasting with neural networks: using GCMs with different complexity as a study-ground. Geosci. Mod. Dev., doi: 10.5194/gmd-12-2797-2019

[31] Vichi, M., Eayrs, C., Alberello, A., Bekker, A., Bennetts, L., Holland, D., de Jong, E., Joubert, W., MacHutchon, K., Messori, G., Mojica, J., Onorato, M., Saunders, C., Skatulla, S., Toffoli, A. (2019) Effects of an explosive polar cyclone crossing the Antarctic marginal ice zone. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2019GL082457

[30] Messori, G.*, Ruiz-Pérez, G.* (equal contribution), Manzoni, S., Vico, G. (2019) Climate drivers of the terrestrial carbon cycle variability in Europe. Env. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab1ac0

[29] Hochman, A., Alpert, P., Harpaz, T., Saaroni, H., Messori, G. (2019) A new dynamical systems perspective on atmospheric predictability: eastern Mediterranean weather regimes as a case study. Sci. Adv., doi:10.1126/sciadv.aau0936

[28] Faranda, D., Alvarez-Castro, M. C., Messori, G., Rodrigues, D., Yiou, P. (2019) The Hammam Effect or how a Warm Ocean Enhances Large Scale Atmospheric Predictability, Nature Communications, doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-09305-8

[27] Messori, G., Gaetani, M., Zhang, Q., Zhang, Q. Pausata, F.S.R. (2019) The water cycle of the mid-Holocene West African Monsoon: the role of vegetation and dust emission changes, Int. J. Climatol., doi: 10.1002/joc.5924

[26] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2019) How Global Warming Changes the Difficulty of Synoptic Weather Forecasting. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2018GL081856

[25] Messori, G., Davini, P., Alvarez-Castro, M.C., Pausata, F.S.R., Caballero, R., Yiou, P. (2019) On the low-frequency variability of wintertime Euro-Atlantic planetary wave-breaking. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4373-2

[24] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Vannistem, S. (2019) Attractor dimension of time-averaged climate observables: insights from a low-order ocean-atmosphere model. Tellus A, doi: 10.1080/16000870.2018.1554413

[23] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2019) Selective ensemble mean technique for severe European windstorms. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.3408

2018

[22] #Scher, S. and Messori, G. (2018) Predicting weather forecast uncertainty with machine learning, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.3410

[21] Rodrigues, D., Alvarez-Castro, M.-C., Messori, G., Yiou, P., Robin, Y., Faranda, D. (2018) Dynamical properties of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in the past 150 years in CMIP5 models and the 20CRv2C Reanalysis. J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0176.1

[20] Messori, G., #van Wees, D., Pausata, F.S.R., Acosta, J.-C., Hannachi, A., Dentener, F.J. (2018) Future atmospheric circulation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector and impacts on urban PM2.5 concentrations. Tellus B, doi: 10.1080/16000889.2018.1468704

[19] Bollasina, M. and Messori, G. (2018) On the link between the Subseasonal Evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Asian Climate. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4095-5

[D] Messori, G., Caballero, R., Bouchet, F., Faranda, D., Grotjahn, R., Harnik, N., Jewson, S., Pinto, J.G., Rivière, G., Woollings, T., Yiou, P. (2018) An interdisciplinary approach to the study of extreme weather events: large-scale atmospheric controls and insights from dynamical systems theory and statistical mechanics. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0296.1

[18] Messori, G., Woods, C., Caballero, R. (2018) On the drivers of wintertime temperature extremes in the High Arctic. J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0386.1

[C] Messori, G., Woods, C., Caballero, R. (2018) Corrigendum to: "On the drivers of wintertime temperature extremes in the High Arctic". J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0345.1

[17] Bartlett, R.E., Bollasina, M.A., Booth, B.B.B., Dunstone, N.J., Marenco, F., Messori, G., Bernie, D.J. (2018) Do differences in future sulphate emission pathways matter for near term climate? A case study for the Asian Monsoon, Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3726-6

2017

[16] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Alvarez-Castro, M.-C., Yiou, P. (2017) Dynamical properties and extremes of Northern Hemisphere climate fields over the past 60 years. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., doi: 10.5194/npg-24-713-2017

[15] Gaetani, M., Messori, G., Zhang, Q., Flamant, C., Pausata F.S.R. (2017) Understanding the mechanisms behind the northward extension of the West African Monsoon during the Mid-Holocene. J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0299.1

[14] Messori, G., Geen, R., Czaja, A. (2017) On the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Atmospheric Heat Transport in a Hierarchy of Models, J. Atmos. Sci., doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-16-0360.1

[13] Messori, G., Caballero, R., Faranda, D. (2017) A Dynamical Systems Approach to Studying Mid-Latitude Weather Extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1002/2017GL072879

[12] Faranda, D., Messori, G., Yiou, P. (2017) Dynamical Proxies of North Atlantic Predictability and Extremes. Sci. Rep., doi: 10.1038/srep41278

[11] Chiaccio, M., Pausata, F.S.R., Messori, G., Hannachi, A., Chin, M., Onskog, T., Ekman, A., Barrie, L. (2017) On the links between meteorological variables, aerosols and global tropical cyclone frequency. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., doi:10.1002/2015JD024593

2016

[10] Harnik, N., Messori, G., Caballero, R., Feldstein, S. (2016) The circumglobal North American wave pattern and its relation to cold events in Eastern North America. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/2016GL070760

[9] Lofverstrom, M., Caballero, R., Nilsson, J., Messori, G. (2016) Stationary Wave Reflection as a Mechanism for Zonalizing the Atlantic Winter Jet at the LGM, J. Atmos. Sci., doi:10.1175/JAS-D-15-0295.1

[8] Stiller-Reeve, M.A., Heuzé, C., Ball, W.T., White, R.H., Messori, G., van der Wiel, K., Madhaug, I., Eckes, A., O'Callaghan, A., Newland, M.J., Williams, S., Kasoar, M., Wittemeier, H.E. and Kumer, V. (2016) Improving together: better science writing through peer learning. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., doi:10.5194/hess-20-2965-2016

[7] Messori, G., Caballero, R., Gaetani, M. (2016) On cold spells in North America and storminess in Western Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/2016GL069392

[6] Pausata, F.S.R.*, Messori, G.* (equal contribution), Zhang, Q. (2016) Impacts of Dust Reduction on the Northward Expansion of the African Monsoon During the Green Sahara Period, Earth Plan. Sci. Lett. doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2015.11.049

2015 and earlier

[5] Messori, G. and Caballero, R. (2015) On double Rossby wave breaking in the North Atlantic, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., doi:10.1002/2015JD023854

[4] Messori, G. and Czaja, A. (2015) On local and zonal pulses of atmospheric heat transport in reanalysis data. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. doi: 10.1002/qj.2529

[B] Messori, G. and Kasoar, M. (2015) Air Pollutants as Mediators of Climate Change: Science and Policy. Weather, doi:10.1002/wea.2473

[3] Pausata, F.S.R., Gaetani, M., Messori, G., Kloster, S., Dentener, F. J. (2015) The role of aerosol in altering North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in winter and air-quality feedbacks. Atmos. Chem. Phys., doi:10.5194/acp-15-1725-2015

[2] Messori, G. and Czaja, A. (2014) Some considerations on the spectral features of meridional heat transport by transient eddies. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.2224

[A] Messori, G. (2013) The Long-range Forecasting Problem: Mythology, Science and Progress. Weather, doi: 10.1002/wea.2140

[1] Messori, G. and Czaja, A. (2013) On the sporadic nature of meridional heat transport by transient eddies. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.2011